Nov '25: New Car Buyers have more power! | Thornebriar
Understanding the New-Car Market: What Today’s Buyers Need to Know (Nov 2025 Update)
If you’ve been thinking about buying or leasing a new car, you’ve probably noticed the market feels different from the past few years. Inventory is growing, incentives are shifting, and interest rates—while still elevated—are starting to stabilize. The landscape isn’t chaotic like the post-pandemic shortage years, but it’s far from 2019 normality.
This update breaks down the most important trends shaping today’s new-car market so you can shop with confidence, understand where you have leverage, and avoid unnecessary surprises.
1. Inventory Levels Are Up — and That Matters for Negotiation
One of the biggest changes in 2025 is inventory.
- Industry-wide new-vehicle supply sits around 84–88 days. Up significantly from August’s 64 days.
- Some brands are much higher:
- Ford: ~113 days
- Lincoln: ~142 days
- Traditionally lean brands like Toyota and Honda have seen supply rise as well (double-digit increases month-over-month).
What this means for you:
Higher supply = more selection + more negotiating room, especially on brands/models with 100+ days of inventory. Dealers holding excess stock may be more motivated to move units, especially as 2026 models arrive. As you shop, if you see identically priced units, view the MSRP (Window Sticker) for each and find the oldest date- the dealer will be most flexible on price for his oldest units.
2. Sales Pace Is Stable, Not Surging
The U.S. new-car market is moving at a healthy but cooling pace.
- The current annualized sales rate (SAAR) sits around 16.4–16.6 million units.
- Forecasts suggest the full-year 2025 market will land near 16.1 million.
What this means for you:
The market isn’t overheated with demand. That puts buyers in a better position than during the shortage years when vehicles sold the moment they arrived.
3. Incentives Are Back — Slowly
Incentive spending isn’t sky-high yet, but it’s significantly better than in 2021–2023.
- Average incentive spend:
- $2,674 in October
- $3,211 expected in November
- Incentives equal 5%–6.5% of MSRP on average.
- Trucks & SUVs receive higher incentives (often $3,200+).
- Some EVs and slow-moving models are seeing 0% or sub-1% APR offers again.
What this means for you:
There are deals—just not blanket mega-discounts. Incentives are targeted. The best opportunities tend to be:
- High-inventory models
- EVs and plug-ins
- Prior-year leftovers
- Full-size trucks and large SUVs
- Brands with 100+ days of supply
4. Interest Rates Are High, but They’re Stabilizing
Financing costs remain one of the biggest affordability challenges.
- Average new-car loan rate: 6.5%–7.1%.
- Some captive lenders (OEM financing arms) are offering promotional rates below market on select models.
What this means for you:
Even a small rate drop can save thousands over a 5- or 6-year loan. If the model you want has a special low-APR offer, it may be worth choosing the promo rate over a bigger cash rebate. Use our offer/deal calculators to easily compare low interest rates to cash rebates while confirming all costs. You need the total out the door price including trade-in value, rebates & cash down to confirm the total amount financed, term & monthly payments. Never negotiate monthly payment without complete details or you’ll likely find out too late the dealer extended the loan term and/or raised the interest rate.
5. Prices Are Still High — But More Flexible Than Before
- New-vehicle average listing price: ~$49,400.
- Transaction prices remain elevated, but discounting power is returning through a combination of:
- Higher dealer inventory
- Manufacturer incentives
- Slower month-over-month sales
What this means for you:
MSRP is no longer the fixed, non-negotiable number it was during the shortage. Dealers are far more willing to discount high-supply vehicles and trims. Most importantly, negotiate from MSRP (Window Sticker) and ignore any addendum sticker. Any options on an addendum sticker can be denied and removed.
6. Where Buyers Have Leverage (And Where They Don’t)
Strong buyer leverage:
- High-inventory brands (Ford, Lincoln)
- Full-size trucks/SUVs
- EVs and plug-ins
- Outgoing model year vehicles
- Slower-selling trims/packages
Limited leverage:
- Hybrids with strong demand
- Toyota & Honda models
- Newly redesigned models
- Limited-production vehicles
7. Should You Buy Now or Wait?
Buy now if:
- You’re shopping a model with high days’ supply
- You can qualify for a low-APR promo
- You find a leftover ’25 at a discount
- You need a vehicle before 2026 inventory resets hit pricing
- Tariffs – while still a volatile issue, tariffs previously absorbed primarily by the manufacturers will begin to be passed along to you in the form of higher MSRPs. See our tariff blog from July for more info, but in simple terms, dealers do not pay tariffs. Any ask is nothing more than an attempt to price you instead of the product.
Wait if:
- You want a high-demand model with low incentives
- You’re expecting broader rate cuts (but trends are slow, not sudden)
- You’re not seeing the incentives you want yet, and inventory on your model keeps rising
Bottom Line: Buyers Have More Power in Today’s Market
The 2025 new-car market is shifting toward the buyer again—but selectively. Inventory is rising, incentives are improving, and pressure is building on slow-moving models. However, interest rates and high sticker prices still make affordability a challenge.
Your best strategy:
Shop smart, target vehicles with high supply or strong incentives, and compare both cash rebates and promotional APR offers to see which saves you more.
For consumers about to make what for most will be the largest, most complex, time consuming, confusing, risky and, sometimes just plain unfair financial transaction, it has never been more important to be well prepared. Why? Dealers are prepared price you everyday. Learn more about how to properly prepare and take control of the purchase experience with a Car Buyer’s Gameplan. Plus, get the first Quarter 3 C’s Gameplan for free at www.thornebriar.com.
Sources: Cox Automotive, S&P Global, CBT News, US News Cars, Autovista 24, CarEdge, Edmunds, Haigpartners, Car & Driver, Autoinovate, USNews, Informa.com, & KBB.
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